• Poll of Polls: The final “poll of polls” for the Ukrainian Parliamentary Election bears out some trends that began last week. Poroshenko Bloc, Radical Party, Civil Position and Svoboda are all in decline from their peak. People’s Front, Samopomich and the Opposition Bloc are all surging with momentum. Based on the averages, a record eight parties will pass the 5% barrier including:
Poroshenko Bloc with 31.3%, followed by the Radical Party at 10.4%. Both have declined by 20-30% from their peak last month but will comfortably win seats in parliament. People’s Front is set to surpass Byut and now averages 9% to Byut’s 7.8%. Samopomich is surging to an average of 5.9% but likely to do better than that in the final tally. The Opposition Bloc also has late momentum and will pass the barrier as they now are at 5.7%. Gritsenko’s Civil Position is in sharp decline but still averages 5.5%. However they are below 5% in three of the last five most recent polls. Strong Ukraine is averaging exactly 5% and tomorrow night’s vote count will keep them on the edge of their seat as they hope to cross the barrier. Svoboda now is averaging just 4.3% but historically has over-performed the polls on Election Day. The Communists are at a mere 3.5% and will not cross the barrier. The next parliament will be the first in Ukraine’s history without any Communists.
Based on the averages, the 225 seats apportioned by party list would be divided as follows:
1. Poroshenko Bloc 87 seats
2. Radical Party 29 seats
3. National Front 25 seats
4. Byut 22 seats
5. Samopomich 16 seats
6. Opposition Bloc 16 seats
7. Civil Position 15 seats
8. Strong Ukraine 15 seats
Thus, the opposition parties (Opposition Bloc and Strong Ukraine) would have just 31 of 225 seats on the proportional ballot. The Opposition Bloc will win some single mandate seats in the east and south though. Poroshenko bloc will dominate the single mandate elections and have a faction near 200 members. National Front and Byut will also win single mandate seats and double their size on the final tally. Samopomich, Civil Position, and Strong Ukraine are not expected to win any single mandate seats. Without question, this will be the most pro-European Parliament in Ukraine’s history. Now let’s count the actual votes…
Dates to Watch:
• October 26- Election Day•
November 2 – Unrecognized “Parliamentary Elections’ in the so called DPR & LPR (occupied Donbass).
• December 7 – Local Elections in the Donbass.